A compass company in a category of fortune-tellers.
Windrose Institute simulates how a population would respond to your idea and reports what it can honestly defend: a direction, a ranking, and the hypotheses worth testing. Everything else in this category sells certainty. We sell a bearing, and the honesty to say how far to trust it.
An instrument, not an oracle.
A founder with three ideas and no research budget faces the same problem a navigator once did: no map of where they are going, only instruments and judgement. Windrose Institute is one of those instruments. It runs your idea past a simulated population and tells you which way the needle points, not what the weather will be on a date certain.
We built the company on a finding, not against it: language models do not reliably reproduce human psychology, so a confident number about a stranger's future behaviour is guesswork dressed up as precision. Rather than hide that, we made it the product. Every result carries an evidence label stating which rung of proof it stands on and where our backtests say it can be trusted.
The name is the idea. A wind rose is the figure on a chart that shows, over many observations, which way the wind tends, a distribution, not a single arrow. That is exactly what we return: the shape of a response, with its spread visible, so you can see how firmly it holds.
Direction, not decimals.
We report the way the effect points and the order of your options. A calibrated number is earned with real data, never invented.
Every number wears a label.
Nothing ships without its rung of evidence, its calibration state, and its backtest class. If you can't see how far to trust it, we haven't done our job.
We publish what we get wrong.
When the real world disagrees with a simulation, that goes on the record, in public, next to what we predicted. The method changelog is append-only.
Built small, on purpose.
One human and a constitution of written rules. Inference runs on our own hardware; your idea is never training data. Small enough to stay honest.
One human and a constitution.
Windrose Institute is a one-person company that runs itself on the same discipline it sells. Decisions are recorded with their reasoning and the alternatives rejected; evidence is ranked before it is acted on; nothing is overwritten, only superseded with the history left visible. The company is the first proof that the method works, tested on itself before it is sold to anyone else.
Watch the decisions happen in the open on the build log, or read exactly how the instrument works on the Science page.
Point the needle at your own idea.
Your first run is free, no card. A direction and a next test in about a minute.